Shades of Arizona in Florida

Today, people think of Florida as the definitive big Republican State. It has trended to the right and has become nearly out of reach for Democrats. It went for Trump by +2.1 in 2016, it was Trump+3.4 in 2020 and in 2022 it was DeSantis +20. Its bold shift to the right and beautiful beaches have attracted many Midwestern conservative snowbirds seeking refuge in the warmer and more conservative climates of Florida. Its booming economy attracted many Latin American migrants from the Caribbean, Central America, South America, and Mexico. It is the current conservative experiment state.

However, Florida was not always this conservative, and nor was it always the conservative destination state. Arizona was the right-wing Reagan-Goldwater retirement state before Florida became the hub of the American right. Barry Goldwater’s principled Libertarianism won the hearts of the American right even though he lost by a landslide to Lyndon B. Johnson. The Goldwater Libertarian ethos emphasized work ethic, less government, and low taxes. The Goldwater ethos pulled Arizona away from Carl Haydens New Deal Coalition which had a tight hold on Arizona from the 1930s to the mid-1960s. After the 1970s, more Republican and conservative candidates began to win in Arizona federally and statewide. Republicans carried Arizona at the Presidential level from 1968-2016, except for 1996.

In 1996, Bill Clinton won Arizona without Maricopa County. He won because Perot split the vote and held the last gasp of the old Rural Hayden New Deal coalition. Arizona then went by 6.3% for Bush in 2000 and by 10.5% for Bush in 2004. Republicans also held both US Senate Seats at this point. Flash forward to Florida in 2022, and Republicans hold both US Senate Seats in Florida and the Governor’s mansion.

After 2004 things started to change in Arizona. Arizona’s economy and its Hispanic population boomed. Arizona’s significant Mexican-American population concerned the elderly and conservative white population in Arizona. Arizona’s tallest Republican figures like John McCain or Jon Kyl were not overt racists in the Republican party. McCain went out of his way to appeal to Hispanic voters by promising sensible immigration reform. However, Sheriff Joe Apaio did appeal to Arizona White Nativists in ways other Republicans did not. In 1993, Arpaio fashioned a concentration camp from old Korean War tents and mainly used the camp mainly for undocumented Latino immigrants. Arpaio would remain the local Maricopa County sheriff, but one Arpaio sympathizer would become governor, enter former Secretary of State, Jan Brewer.

In 2009, Jan Brewer became the Governor of Arizona after Janet Napolitano retired to join the Obama administration. Brewer promised that she would crack down on illegal immigrants. When asked if she was concerned about the pushback in the Hispanic vote, Brewer said that “They don’t vote!” Brewer would sign SB1070, which allowed law enforcement to detain a person whom they suspected to be undocumented. Essentially anybody who looked Hispanic could be pulled over by law enforcement because they would be prime suspects for being undocumented. The reaction from the Latino community in Arizona was fierce, it inspired a wave of activists like Ruben Gallego to mobilize and then later run for office as Democrats. The moderate Hispanic voters that used to vote for Bush and McCain were now solid Democrats.

Recently, Ron DeSantis signed SB1718, and it is a bill that has some of the harshest elements of Alabama’s HB56 and California’s Prop 187. SB1718 prohibits counties from providing funds to any undocumented person, prohibits hospitals from attending undocumented people, and requires Employers to use E-Verify to identify that workers hired are not undocumented. Essentially the Republican bill makes Florida an inhospitable state for undocumented workers. If someone is an undocumented worker in Florida they can be deported and if they get sick they can also be deported. This is a very harsh bill that is already having economic repercussions. South Florida media outlets report that Agriculture and Construction industries have collapsed in Labor and productivity.

Some Republicans are already arguing that DeSantis’ bill isn’t going to face pushback because Cubans and South Americans are very conservative, and the voting electorate of the Mexican population is small in comparison with states like Arizona and California. While that may be true, this does not mean that SB1718 will only impact Mexicans or Central Americans. Many Cubans and South Americans work in real estate, restaurants, and hospitality as managers or workers. If the prices of food have increased and if companies don’t have enough workers to build houses or staff hotels, then their profits are going to shrink.

Generally, when Latinos suffer economically, they will want to blame someone. That blame will fall on the Republican legislature and DeSantis. Not all farm workers are Mexicans or Central Americans, some are Cubans too. Cubans are no longer given preferential treatment because Wet Foot Dry Foot ended under the Obama administration, and a good portion of them now arrived undocumented. Given enough economic suffering, and discrimination by law enforcement or Whites, that may be enough to make South Florida Latinos reconsider their alliance with Republicans and vote Democratic again.

Florida Democrats currently have the opportunity that Arizona Democrats did a decade ago. Arizona Democrats were in a bleak position in 2010 but triumphant in 2022. Florida Democrats’ success is going to hinge on their ability to make an economic and social pitch to Latinos. If they continue to dismiss that Latino coalition as they did in the past, then they will have spoiled their last chance to be genuinely competitive in the Sunshine State.