In 2022, Florida voted for the incumbent Ron DeSantis by nearly 20% points, and Marco Rubio by 16% points. This was a clear sign that Florida is becoming a red state. In the past Florida had margins that were decided by very thin margins. Miami Dade and Osceola went red in 2022, a sign that the bottom has fallen off for Democrats with Latinos of Cuban, South American, and Puerto Rican origin. It wasn’t always like this, Trump won Florida by 3% points, and DeSantis won Florida by 0.4% points. Miami-Dade and Osceola went blue in both elections.
The main reason why Florida Democrats have collapsed is because they have neglected outreach to Latino voters. Bill Nelson, Gillum, and the Florida State Democratic Party did not prioritize Latino outreach efforts. In the case of Nelson, he just assumed that Latinos were just natural conservatives and instead doubled down on an Anglo-only strategy, and that backfired. Gillum did not do much either, he picked a White Evangelical to be Lt. Governor nominee. By contrast, Rick Scott spoke broken Spanish to a Hispanic crowd, and Ron DeSantis picked a Latino to be his running mate for Lt Governor. Republicans also cunningly studied what was responsive to Latino conservatives and made a bold pitch. Florida Democratic messaging to Latinos simply fell flat. Aside from poor Latino messaging, the Latino Democratic bench in Florida was missing.
Texas has a different electoral history. It voted for Abbott by 10 in 2022, and Cruz by 2 points in 2018. In 2020, Trump only won Texas by 5 points whereas Bush won the state by 23% in 2004. It’s a state that Democrats haven’t won since Jimmy Carter in 1976 but is now closer than Florida in terms of competitive elections, and it is all thanks to the growth in the Texas Triangle. However, in 2020, Trump made inroads in many Hispanic precincts not just the Rio Grande Valley, but in areas of Houston, and Bexar counties. In 2021, and 2022 Mayra Flores, and Monica De La Cruz made history by becoming the first Republican Tejanas elected to South Texas. Texas is 40% Hispanic in population which is nearly double that of Florida. If Texas Democrats lose their hold with Hispanics, Texas will be out of reach, even if they make inroads with Suburbanites and have high Black turnout.
Given how close the 2018 and 2020 Texas elections were, Texas Democrats fielded a strong candidate to run against Ted Cruz, which is Colin Allred. Colin Allred has strong Collin and Dallas counties ties which would make any Republican nervous, but he doesn’t have a lock on Hispanic voters. He is not Hispanic and does not represent a congressional seat that is majority Hispanic. Former congressman Beto O’Rourke had a unique ability to make his pitch to Hispanics because he defeated a Hispanic incumbent in an 80% Hispanic seat. Beto’s success reminded me of another white man who was able to persuade Hispanics, Harry Reid.
To win, Allred would need to be more like Harry Reid than Andrew Gillum or Bill Nelson. Harry Reid was an old, white, and Mormon man but he understood that to have excellent Hispanic outreach it means taking time personally to adopt positions that Hispanics value and hire Hispanic outreach that will be motivated by the values of your campaign. Harry Reid won re-election on a ticket that elected the first Latino Republican Governor of Nevada, Brian Sandoval. That’s how impressive Reid’s outreach team was.
If Allred’s messaging remains mainstream Democrat, that may not be enough to hold onto Hispanic Texas who have drifted toward Republicans. To win over Latinos, as a Non-Latino candidate, you have to put in twice the effort and investment. Otherwise, Latinos don’t see much incentive to turn out and vote Democratic. Especially Tejanos since they are culturally different from White Anglo Texans and Black Texans.
Las Vegas Nevada Election Maps 